[导读]:本文(《为什么现在还不是恐慌债券市场发出经济衰退信号的时候?》)由来自吴川的读者投稿,并经由本站(债券资讯网)结合主题:政府债券利率低的原因,收集整理了众多资料而成。主要记述了收益率曲线等方面的信息。相信从本文您一定可以获得自己所需要的!

周二,债券市场向股市发出了经济相关的可怕的信号,但现在可能还不是惊慌失措的时候。

一些短期美国国债的收益率超过了长期的美国国债收益率,这种情况被称为反向收益率曲线。

尽管收益率曲线在过去一直被认为是可靠的经济衰退的标志,但最重要的3月期债券收益率和10年期政府债券收益率曲线并没有反过来,因此并没有引发未来经济衰退的可能性。

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1996年6月,纽约联邦储备银行对反向曲线进行了研究。

经济学家Frederic Mishkin和Arturo Estrella表示,比较收益率“可以在宏观经济预测中发挥有益作用,尤其是在提前期较长的情况下。”他们发现,收益率曲线“在较长时期内表现明显优于其他变量”,这“使其作为预测工具的用途更加引人注目”。

在更直接的情况下,市场担心,在周二的交易中,2年期国债收益率高于5年期国债收益率。一般的解释是,反向曲线意味着投资者担心较长期的经济增长,并预期未来收益率会更低。过去50年来,反向收益率曲线一直是可靠的衰退指标。

然而,10年期和3月期国债之间的利差仍然很大。

这个差距约为49个基点,不到0.5个百分点——这绝对不是倒挂,但处于11多年来的最低点。

衡量10年期和3月期美国国债之间的利差

衡量10年期和3月期美国国债之间的利差

外汇经纪公司OANDA的资深市场分析师Craig Erlam在一份报告中称:“反向收益率曲线通常与经济衰退预期有关,这可能是投资者对此感到紧张的原因,但我不认为这将要发生。"

Craig Erlam补充道:“美联储一直在以合理的速度收紧政策,如果经济增速开始放缓,那么它可能会小幅降息以提供一些支持,这是合理的。这将意味着较低的增长水平,这自然会拖累股市,因此可能解释周二的股市下跌。”

确实,美联储正担忧着利率问题。美联储一直在稳步上调短期利率,而长期利率的进展速度较慢。

美联储官员大多表示,他们正在关注收益率曲线,但只是将它当做是他们正在关注的经济健康状况中的一个指标。他们也普遍认为,关系最大的还是3月期和10年期国债之间的利差。

也许这次不一样

克利夫兰联邦储备银行的衰退指标目前仅为20.3%。该指标衡量未来12个月经济下滑的可能性。然而,随着曲线趋平,该指标从10月的16.6%上升到更高。

安联投资管理深投资策略师Charles Ripley表示:“尽管2年期和5年期国债利差大,但3月期和10年期美国国债利差仍然是50个基点,出现反向收益率曲线可能还需要几个月的时间。”

即便如此,经济衰退依然是不确定的。

美联储官员和一些华尔街策略师认为,收益率曲线出现“这次不同”这样的情况是合理的。它是基于一种称为定期溢价的概念,即投资者因承担风险而要求的长期回报。他们的观点是,投资者之所以愿意购买美国长期债券,是因为虽然它们的收益率处于历史低位,但仍远高于其他大多数国家类似期限的债券。

这一切都发生在各国央行以前所未有的方式干预市场之际,造成的扭曲可能不会让反向曲线变得有相关性。

Stifel Nicolaus机构股票策略师Barry Bannister在周二表示:“由于海外债券收益率较低,长期溢价就非常低。从长远来看,这是一种压抑效应。如果收益率曲线出现倒挂,它的负面影响就会比过去小。”

这并不是说投资者应该过于随意地看待这种关系。反向的程度可能是关键。

当被问及反向收益率曲线是否预示着未来会出现不好的情况时,Barry Bannister说,“如果它失控了,那它就是预示着这种情况。”

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The bond market sent a scary signal to the stock market Tuesday about the economy, but it's probably not time to freak out — yet.

Yields of some shorter-dated Treasurys passed those of longer-duration issues, a condition known as an inverted yield curve.

While inversions have been reliable recession indicators in the past, the most important relationship — between the 3-month and 10-year government notes — is not inverted and thus hasn't triggered the likelihood of a contraction ahead.

The seminal study on inverted curves came from the New York Federal Reserve in June 1996.

Economists Frederic Mishkin, who a decade later would serve on the central bank's Board of Governors, and Arturo Estrella said comparing yields "can have a useful role in macroeconomic prediction, particularly with longer lead times." The yield curve, they found, "strongly outperforms other variables at longer horizons" which "makes its use as a forecasting tool even more compelling."

In the more immediate case, the market is concerned that the 2-year note yielded higher than its 5-year counterpart during Tuesday trading. The general interpretation is that an inverted curve means investors are worried about longer-term growth and expect yields to be lower further out on the curve. Inverted curves have been reliable recession indicators for the past 50 years.

The difference between the 10-year and the 3-month notes, though, still remains significant.

That gap was around 49 basis points, or less than half a percentage point — definitely not an inversion, but at its lowest point in more than 11 years.

Gauging the spread between the 10-year and 3-month notes

衡量10年期和3月期美国国债之间的利差

"An inverted yield curve is often associated with the anticipation of a recession which may be why investors are nervous about it but I'm not convinced this is what's going on," Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at forex brokerage OANDA, said in a note.

"The Fed has been tightening policy at a decent rate and if the economy starts to slow then it makes sense that it may cut rates a little to provide some support. This would imply lower levels of growth which naturally is a drag on stocks and may therefore explain some of the selling today," Erlam added.

Indeed, the Fed is at the center of the rate fears. The central bank has been steadily hiking its short-term rate while longer-term rates have progressed less rapidly.

Fed officials largely have said they are watching the yield curve but view it as only one indicator among several they are monitoring regarding economic health. They, too, generally agree that the most relevant relationship is the 3-month/10-year comparison.

This time is different, maybe

The Cleveland Fed's recession indicator, which measures the chances of an economic decline over the next 12 months, is currently at just 20.3 percent. However, as the curve has flattened the indicator has ticked higher, rising from 16.6 percent in October.

"While the inversion between the 2-year and 5-year point of the Treasury curve is notable, the spread between 3-month Treasury bills and the 10-year US Treasury is still 50 basis points and it could be many months before we see that point of the curve invert," said Charles Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

Even then, there's no certainty of a recession.

Fed officials and some Wall Street strategists see a legitimate "this time is different" case for the yield curve. It's based on a concept called term premium, or the reward investors demand over time for the risk they take. The argument is that investors are willing to buy long-term U.S. bonds because their yields, while low historically, are still much higher than most other countries' bonds of similar duration.

It's all come during a time when central banks have intervened in markets like never before, creating distortions that might not make an inverted curve as relevant.

"Term premium is very depressed due to low yields abroad," Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, said during a presentation Tuesday in New York. "There is a repressive effect on the long end. If there's an inversion, it's less negative than it was in the past."

拓展阅读

2017年国债,年利率是多少?:https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/372728620139525684.html

相关问答

问:为什么美国历史上地方政府市政债券的利率低于联邦债券?

答:地方政府有资产,再低的收益,也会有人做。联邦政府是负债政府,因此,利率再高买的人也少。令外,联邦政府发债额较高,只有有实力的投资公司才有机会购买。联邦政府必须给予较高的回报率才行。


问:中央银行在公开市场上买进政府债券的结果将使

答:A商业银行的存款应该增多。
因为中央银行买进政府债券,把货币投放市场,使货币流通量增加,所以银行存款增多。
B市场利率应该下降。
如果中央银行卖出政府债券会减少流通中基础货币以紧缩货币供给,提高利率。反之利率下降。
C公手上流通的货币增加不用多说。
So~选C咯


问:为什么中央银行大量卖出政府债券会使利率上升、产出下降?

答:  中央银行卖出政府债券,导致这个债券的供给增加,在需求不变的情况下,供给增加,价格会下降。
同时中央银行卖出政府债券,收回市面上流通的现金,导致现金的供给减少,那么人民币会升值,导致利率上升。
是因为人民币的升值导致的利率上升,需要了解其中的原理。


问:为什么政府通过发行债券筹集经费会引起债券价格下降市场利率上升

答:你好,是这样的,简单地说,政府发行债券会造成债券供给上升,那么根据供求关系就会引起债券价格下降,而债券价格与市场利率反向变动,因此市场利率会上升。


问:为什么说公司债券比政府债券利率高

答:  利率与风险是成正比的,公司债券的风险比政府债券风险高,所以利率也高。
  把钱借给政府,政府是以税收来偿还债务的,具有较强的稳定性和抗风险性,只要政府不破产,政府肯定会还,要是把钱借给公司,由于市场的不确定因素很多,面临的风险较大,‍公司可能会遇到经营不善而破产的倒闭,还不起钱的情况。


问:地方政府债券利率为什么会比国债低

答:  地方债券的风险极低,可比国债,甚至高过银行存款的安全性。地方政府债券在偿还性、流动性、安全性上都不能和国债相比,但其利率却比国债低。这其中可能是因为一些其他因素的影响。
  比如发行费用方面的关系。国债因为其信誉高、流动性高的原因,购买范围大。而地方政府债券的发行相比国债而言就比较困难。发行费用就会比国债高。这方面可能会对其利率有一些影响。
  地方政府债券(Local Treasury Bonds) 指某一国家中有财政收入的地方政府地方公共机构发行的债券。地方政府债券一般用于交通、通讯、住宅、教育、医院和污水处理系统等地方性公共设施的建设。地方政府债券一般也是以当地政府的税收能力作为还本付息的担保。地方发债有两种模式,第一种为地方政府直接发债;第二种是中央发行国债,再转贷给地方,也就是中央发国债之后给地方用。
  国债是指的是政府为筹措财政资金,凭其信誉按照一定程序向投资者出具的,承诺在一定时期支付利息和到期偿还本金的一种格式化的债权债务凭证。